EQFN (Equitable Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Equitable Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Equitable Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Equitable Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Equitable Financial Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Equitable Financial Corp (OTCPK:EQFN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

113 North Locust Street, PO Box 160, Grand Island, NE, USA, 68801

Website

https://www.equitableonline.com

Equitable Financial Corp is a holding company. The bank is engaged in the business of attracting deposits from the public and using those funds to originate commercial loans, agricultural loans, one- to four-family residential real estate loans and Other, these all activities are conducted through its main offices which are Located in Grand Island, North Platte, Omaha and Elkhorn, Nebraska.. The Bank's primary services include accepting deposits, making loans, and investing in securities. It also provides Advisory services and wealth management.

Executives

William B Westering	director	113 N LOCUST ST, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Wassinger Benedict P Jr	director	113-115 NORTH LOCUST STREET, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Thomas E Gdowski	director, officer: President and CEO	113-115 NORTH LOCUST STREET, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Douglas J Nodgaard	officer: Community Bank President	10855 W DODGE RD, STE 110, OMAHA NE 68154
Jack E Rasmussen	director	113-115 NORTH LOCUST STREET, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Douglas J Redman	director	113-115 NORTH LOCUST STREET, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Pamela L Price	director	113-115 NORTH LOCUST STREET, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Gary L Hedman	director	113-115 NORTH LOCUST STREET, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Vincent J Dugan	director	113-115 NORTH LOCUST STREET, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Darcy M Ray	officer: VP Finance and Controller	113 N LOCUST ST, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
David Lee Richardson	director, officer: Community Bank President	113 N LOCUST ST, GRAND ISLAND NE 68801
Levi D Fisher	director, officer: Community Bank President	920 S JEFFERS ST, NORTH PLATTE NE 69101

Equitable Financial Headlines

From GuruFocus

Equitable Financial Corp. Announces Voluntary Delisting from The Nasdaq Stock Market

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 07-11-2018