FCHPRA.PFD (FelCor Lodging Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is FelCor Lodging Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FelCor Lodging Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FelCor Lodging Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » FelCor Lodging Trust Inc (NYSE:FCHPRA.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.felcor.com

FelCor Lodging Trust Inc. is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust that invests in upper-upscale, upscale, upper-midscale and independent hotel resort markets located in the U.S. and Canada. Through its subsidiary, FelCor Lodging Limited Partnership, or FelCor LP, the company holds ownership interests in the hotels in its portfolio. The firm operates through a single segment because of the similar economic characteristics of its hotels. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from its California properties. The firm's revenue streams include Room, Food and beverage, and Other operating departments revenue. Room comprises the majority of total revenue. FelCor's hotels operate under major brands, including Hilton, Marriott, Renaissance, Sheraton, Westin, and Holiday Inn.

Executives

Steven R Goldman	director	777 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, WHITEPLAIN NY 10604
Michael C. Hughes	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	545 E. JOHN CARPENTER FWY., SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
Jeffrey D Symes	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	545 E. JOHN CARPENTER FWY., SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
Christopher J Hartung	director	545 E. JOHN CARPENTER FWY., SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
Glenn A Carlin	director	545 E. JOHN CARPENTER FWY., SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
Mark D Rozells	director	545 E. JOHN CARPENTER FWY., SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
Patricia L Gibson	director	545 E JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY, SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
Dana Hamilton	director	C/O ARCHSTONE-SMITH TRUST, 9200 E. PANORAMA CIRCLE, SUITE 400, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
C Brian Strickland	director	420 SOUTH ORANGE AVE, ORLANDO FL 32801
Thomas C Hendrick	director	18716 WAINSBOROUGH LANE, DALLAS TX 75287
Robert F Cotter	director	C/O FELCOR LODGING TRUST INCORPORATED, 545 E. JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY, #1300, IRVING TX 75062
Jonathan H Yellen	officer: Executive VP & Secretary	COMMONWEALTH HALL AT OLD PARKLAND, 3899 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 410, DALLAS TX 75219
Troy A Pentecost	officer: Executive Vice President	545 EAST JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY, SUITE 1300, IRVING TX 75062
David C Kloeppel	director	C/O AMERICAN ADDICTION CENTERS, INC., 115 EAST PARK DRIVE, SECOND FLOOR, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Richard Allen Smith	officer: CFO & Executive Vice President	1950 STEMMONS FREEWAY STE 6001, DALLAS TX 75207