Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
WSP Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of WSP Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
WSP Holdings Ltd was incorporated in the Cayman Islands on November 16, 2006. It is a holding company, which conducts substantially all of its operations through its subsidiaries in China. The Company is a Chinese manufacturer of seamless Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG), including casing, tubing and drill pipes used for oil and natural gas exploration, drilling and extraction. It offers a range of seamless OCTG products to its customers. Its product portfolio could generally be divided into two categories, API products and non-API. API products are products manufactured according to the standards formulated by the American Petroleum Institute and non-API products are products tailor-made to meet its customers' specifications, and that are generally manufactured to a higher standard than API products. The Company's key operating assets included ten threading lines and two drill pipe production lines with an aggregate annual production capacity of approximately 1,394,000 tonnes of seamless OCTG. Its production capacity was approximately 1,430,000 tonnes. It sells its products in both domestic and international markets. In China, it targets sales of its products mainly at Chinese oil companies. It faces competition in the domestic and international markets in which it operates. Many of its competitors are state-owned enterprises which might have greater resources and better brand recognition than it does. The Company's subsidiaries are generally subject to laws and regulations applicable to foreign investments in China and, in particular, laws applicable to wholly foreign-owned enterprises.
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