GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Clearside Biomedical Inc (FRA:CLM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Clearside Biomedical (FRA:CLM) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is Clearside Biomedical Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Clearside Biomedical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Clearside Biomedical Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Clearside Biomedical's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Clearside Biomedical Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
900 North Point Parkway, Suite 200, Alpharetta, GA, USA, 30005
Clearside Biomedical Inc is a United States-based clinical biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in developing pharmacological therapies to treat blinding disease of the eye through the suprachoroidal space, or SCS. The company's novel SCS injection platform, utilizing a proprietary SCS Microinjector, enables an in-office, repeatable, non-surgical procedure for the targeted and compartmentalized delivery of a wide variety of therapies to the macula, retina, or choroid to potentially preserve and improve vision in patients with sight-threatening eye diseases.

Clearside Biomedical Headlines

From GuruFocus

Cornerstone Funds Announce Continuing Monthly Distributions

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews 07-02-2022

Top 5 4th Quarter Trades of Hunting Hill Global Capital, LLC

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 02-16-2023

Cornerstone Funds Announce Continuing Monthly Distributions

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews 06-22-2022

Cornerstone Funds File Their Annual Reports

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews 03-02-2022

Cornerstone Total Return Fund, Inc. Announces Rights Offering

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews 04-08-2022

Cornerstone Funds Announce Continuing Monthly Distributions

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews 06-02-2022

Cornerstone Funds Announce Continuing Monthly Distributions

By Marketwired Marketwired 05-07-2021