Freedom Holding (Freedom Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Freedom Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Freedom Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Freedom Holding (Freedom Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Freedom Holding Corp (NAS:FRHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FRHC_KZ:Kazakhstan DMW2:Germany

Address

No. 77-7 Al Farabi Avenue, Esentai Tower BC, Floor 7, Almaty, KAZ, 050040

Website

https://www.freedomholdingcorp.com

Freedom Holding Corp is engaged in a broad range of activities in the securities industry, including retail securities brokerage, research, investment counseling, securities trading, market making, corporate investment banking, and underwriting services in Eurasia. It acts as a professional participant through its subsidiaries on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE), Moscow Exchange (MOEX), Saint-Petersburg Exchange (SPB), the Ukrainian Exchange, the Uzbek Republican Currency Exchange (UZCE), and the Republican Stock Exchange of Tashkent (UZSE). Its geographical segments are Central Asia, Europe, the United States, and the Middle East/Caucasus, of which Europe accounts for the majority of its revenue.

Executives

Sergey Lukyanov	officer: *See Remarks	ESENTAI TOWER BC, FLOOR 7, 77/7 AL FARABI AVE, ALMATY 1P 050040
Evgeny Ler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	202 DOSTYK AVE, 4TH FLOOR, ALMATY 1P 050051
Liudmila Kiriaku	officer: VP of Compliance until 8/18/23	CHIRSTAKI KRANOU 20 C TOWER 5TH FL, LIMASSOL G4 4041
Robert Wotczak	officer: CEO - Prime Executions	C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 5111 PEGASUS COURT, FREDERICK MD 21704
Renat Tukanov	officer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER	"ESENTIA TOWER" BC, FLOOR 7, 77/7 AL FARABI AVE, ALMATY 1P 050040
Boris Cherdabayev	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O POULTON & YORDAN, 324 SOUTH 400 WEST SUITE 250, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84101
Amber Williams	director	324 SOUTH 400 WEST, SUITE 250, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84101
Askar Tashtitov	officer: President	KURMANGAZY ST 31, APT 38, ALMATY 1P 050051
Arkady V Rakhilkin	director	AL-FARABI 17, NURLY TAU 4B, OFFICE 104, ALMATY 1P 050059
Timur R Turlov	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	VLANSKIY PER. 14B, AP. 67, MOSCOW 1Z 101000
Toleush Tolmakov	10 percent owner, officer: Vice President	202 DOSTYK AVE., 4TH FLOOR, ALMATY 1P 050051
Daymon M. Smith	director	352 E. 426 N., ALPINE UT 84004
Anuarbek Baimoldin	officer: Chief Operating Officer	202 DOSTYK AVE. 4TH FLOOR, ALMATY 1P 050051
Jason M Kerr	director	1038 SOUTH 750 EAST, KAYSVILLE UT 84037
Jsc Compass Asset Management	10 percent owner	240V FURMANOVA STREET, ALMATY 1P 050059