FRLA (Fortune Rise Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Fortune Rise Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fortune Rise Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fortune Rise Acquisition Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Fortune Rise Acquisition Corp (OTCPK:FRLA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

13575 58th Street North, Suite 200, Clearwater, FL, USA, 33760

Website

Fortune Rise Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Ronald Jay Pollack	director	1862 MCCAULEY RD, CLEARWATER FL 33765
Ryan Spick	director	18034 N 134TH AVE, SUN CITY WEST AZ 85375
Philip Goodman	director	6 OAKWOOD DRIVE, SEWALL'S POINT FL 34996
Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
J Richard Iler	officer: PEO and CFO	815 WALKER STREET, STE. 1155, HOUSTON TX 77002
Payam Eshraghian	director	20601 TROON LANE, HUNTINGTON BEACH CA 92646
Michael Davidov	director	60 EAST 42 STREET, NEW YORK NY 10165
David Xianglin Li	director	3 STONER AVE, GREAT NECK NY 11021
Lei Huang	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3 STONER AVE, GREAT NECK NY 10021
Norman C Kristoff	director	C/O JAMES M. RAE, ESQ., 330 MADISON AVEUNE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Yuanmei Ma	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ROOM 605A TOWER A, RAYCOM INFO TECH PARK, NO. 2 KEXUEYUAN S. RD., ZHONGGUANCUN, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100080
Lei Xu	director, officer: President and Chairwoman	1818 LINDA VISTA CIR., FULLERTON CA 92831
Fortune Rise Sponsor Llc	10 percent owner	48 BRIDGE STREET, BUILDING A, METUCHEN NJ 08840
Koon Keung Chan	10 percent owner	48 BRIDGE STREET, BUILDING A, METUCHEN NJ 08840