FSEA (First Seacoast Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is First Seacoast Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Seacoast Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

First Seacoast Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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First Seacoast Bancorp Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Seacoast Bancorp Inc (NAS:FSEA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

633 Central Avenue, Dover, NH, USA, 03820

Website

https://www.firstseacoastbank.com

First Seacoast Bancorp Inc is a savings and loan holding company. Its business consists of taking deposits from the general public and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations and borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank, in one-to-four-family residential real estate loans, commercial real estate, and multi-family real estate loans, acquisition, development and land loans, commercial and industrial loans, home equity loans and lines of credit and consumer loans. The company generates revenue from financial instruments, such as loans, letters of credit, and investment securities, as well as revenue related to mortgage servicing activities, and bank-owned life insurance.

Executives

Richard M Donovan	director, officer: SVP and CFO	C/O FIRST SEACOAST BANCORP, 633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
James R. Brannen	director, officer: President & CEO	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Mark P. Boulanger	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Dana C Lynch	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Paul Nee	officer: SVP and CIO	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Timothy F. Dargan	officer: SVP and Sr. CLO	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Thomas J. Jean	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
John E. Swenson	officer: SVP and CRO	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Michael J. Bolduc	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
James Jalbert	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Janet Sylvester	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Paula J. Williamson-reid	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Jean Tremblay	officer: SVP and Sr. RLO	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Erica A. Johnson	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Patricia A. Barbour	director	633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820