Fision (Fision) Predictability Rank

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What is Fision Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fision Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Fision Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Fision (Fision) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Fision Corp (OTCPK:FSSN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1650 West End Boulevard, Suite 100, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55416

Website

https://www.fisiononline.com

Fision Corp is an internet platform technology company. It develops and commercializes a cloud-based software platform that automates and integrates digital marketing assets and marketing communications to bridge the gap between marketing and sales of any enterprise. It serves various industries, including banks and other financial institutions, insurance companies, hotels and other hospitality enterprises, healthcare and fitness companies, large retailers, product manufacturers, software and other technology companies, telecommunications companies, and other companies selling familiar branded products or services.

Executives

William Gerhauser	director, officer: CEO	3225 S. MACDILL AVENUE, SUITE 129-339, TAMPA FL 33629
Joshua Carmona	director, officer: CTO	12635 AMBER AVE., CLERMONT FL 34711
Greg Nagel	director	5828 SEBASTIAN, SUITE 109, SAN ANTONIO TX 78249
John B Bode	director	C/O TRIBUNE PUBLISHING COMPANY, 202 W. FIRST STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90012
Michael P Brown	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	2902 CORPORATE PLACE, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
Garry N Lowenthal	director, officer: CFO	2551 38TH AVENUE NE, STE 135, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55421
Jason William Mitzo	officer: SVP Sales	3493 TURNER DRIVE SW, PRIOR LAKE MN 55372
Wade Lynn Anderson	officer: CTO	13288 CREGGS CIRCLE, ROSEMOUNT MN 55068
Ruth Shepley	director, 10 percent owner, other: 100% Owner	57 NORTH BAY, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380

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