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FTRPR.PFD (Frontier Communications) Predictability Rank


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What is Frontier Communications Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Frontier Communications Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Frontier Communications Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Frontier Communications's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Frontier Communications Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
401 Merritt 7, Norwalk, CT, USA, 06851
Frontier Communications Corp is a provider of communications services for consumer and commercial customers in the United States. The portfolio of its services includes Data and Internet services, Video services, Voice services including both the regulated and unregulated voices, Access services, and Advanced Hardware and Network Solutions.
Executives
Sheldon Bruha officer: Chief Financial Officer 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
John Maduri officer: EVP, Chief Customer Officer 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Steve Gable officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS, 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Mark D Nielsen officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS, 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Donald Daniels officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS, 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Kenneth Arndt officer: EVP, Chief Operations Officer 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Elisa Bannon-jones officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Bernard L Han director, officer: President and CEO DISH NETWORK CORPORATION, 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Mohsin Y Meghji director C/O LOUGHLIN MEGHJI + COMPANY, NEW YORK NY 10016
Paul Keglevic director STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Kevin L Beebe director ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Reeve Pamela D A director C/O AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION, 116 HUNTINGTON AVE, BOSTON MA 02116
Diana Sue Ferguson director C/O SARA LEE CORP, 70 W MADISO ST, CHICAGO IL 60602
Virginia P Ruesterholz director 140 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Mark S Shapiro director C/O RED ZONE LLC, 21300 REDSKIN PARK DRIVE, ASHBURN VA 20147

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