What is First National Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
First National Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
First National Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
112 West King Street, Strasburg, VA, USA, 22657
First National Corp is a bank holding company of First Bank, which is a commercial bank. Its core offering includes loans, deposits, wealth management, and other products and services. Loan products and services include personal loans, residential mortgages, home equity loans, and commercial loans. Deposit products and services include checking and savings. The Bank's wealth management division offers estate planning, investment management of assets, retirement accounts, and estate settlement.
Executives
| Kirtesh Patel |
director |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Wilkins Iii James R |
director |
112 W KING ST, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Boyce E Brannock |
director |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Holt George Edwin Iii |
director |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Jason C Aikens |
director |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Scott C Harvard |
director, officer: President/CEO |
112 W KING ST, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Smith Gerald F Jr |
director |
112 W KING ST, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| C Ray Sprinkle |
director |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| William Michael Funk |
director |
443 SHENWOOD AVE, WOODSTOCK VA 22664-1956 |
| Dennis A Dysart |
officer: Senior EVP/CCO |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Beverley Jr Marshall J |
officer: EVP-Senior Trust Officer |
112 W KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| James C Youngblood |
officer: EVP/SENIOR LENDING OFFICER |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657-2220 |
| Emily Marlow Beck |
director |
311 S STEWART ST, WINCHESTER VA 22601-4016 |
| Crow Samuel J Jr. |
officer: EVP / CCO |
112 W KING ST, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
| Davis Dr James A |
director |
112 WEST KING STREET, STRASBURG VA 22657 |
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