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Global Arena Holding (Global Arena Holding) Predictability Rank


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What is Global Arena Holding Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Arena Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Global Arena Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Global Arena Holding (Global Arena Holding) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Global Arena Holding Inc (OTCPK:GAHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BZWR LAAB AIAD MAPT IGEN WOWI BOMO VBIX DUUO CYAP CRM XTER:SAP INTU NOW UBER CDNS SHOP TSX:CSU WDAY ROP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
208 East 51 Street, Suite 112, New York, NY, USA, 10022
Website
http://www.globalarenaholding.com
Global Arena Holding Inc is a United States-based holding company that operates through its three subsidiary companies; GES provides comprehensive technology-enabled paper Absentee/Mail Ballot and Online election services to organizations such as craft and trade organizations, labor unions, political parties, universities, and political organizations, Tidewater Energy Group Inc explores opportunities in the oil, gas, mineral, and energy business, and GAHI Acquisition explores opportunities in the energy and minerals business, which may provide investment opportunities, including the possibility of providing blockchain technology software to energy and mineral companies.
Executives
Anthony Jr. Crisci officer: Chief Financial Officer 39 RUSSET ROAD, SANDY HOOK CT 06482
Robert M Pickus 10 percent owner C/O TRUMP TAJ MAHAL, 1000 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gca Ventures, Llc 10 percent owner 420 LEXINGTON AVE, SUITE 1718, NEW YORK NY 10170
Daniel D Rubino 10 percent owner C/O GCA VENTURES, 420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 1718, NEW YORK NY 10170
George C Dolatly 10 percent owner C/O GCA VENTURES, 420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 1718, NEW YORK NY 10170
Pelham Dr Llc 10 percent owner C/O GCA VENTURES, 420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 1718, NEW YORK NY 10170
Brian Zucker director, officer: Secretary 31 CHAGALL ROAD, MARLBORO NJ 07746
Chenghui Wei director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman QIAOTOUHU, CHENGUAN TOWN, NINGHAI CITY, ZHEJIANG F4 315611
Ray Grimm director 3246 GREY HAWK COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Gerald W Montiel officer: Chairman, CEO, & President 1414 S TROMONT ST, OCEANSIDE CA 92054
Sandra L Evans officer: VP Distribution & Secretary 1414 S TROMONT ST, OCEANSIDE CA 92054
James R Smith director 1414 S TROMONT ST, OCEANSIDE CA 92054
Eric M Montiel officer: Vice President-Sales 1405 SOUTH COAST HIGHWAY, OCEANSIDE CA 92054
Todd W Schmidt officer: Chief Financial Officer
Julia Sargent Knudson officer: President & COO 1414 S TROMONT ST, OCEANSIDE CA 92054

Global Arena Holding (Global Arena Holding) Headlines

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