GAN (GAN) Predictability Rank

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What is GAN Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GAN Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

GAN Predictability Rank Related Terms

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GAN Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » GAN Ltd (NAS:GAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4VN:Germany

Address

10845 Griffith Peak Drive, Suite 200, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89135

Website

https://www.gan.com

GAN Ltd provides Software-as-a-Service solutions for online casino gaming and sports betting applications. The company has two operating segments B2B and B2C. The B2B segment develops, markets, and sells instances of GameSTACK, GAN Sports, and iSight Back Office technology that incorporates comprehensive player registration, account funding, and back-office accounting and management tools that enable the casino operators to efficiently, confidently, and effectively extend their presence online in places that have permitted online real money gaming, and The B2C segment, which includes the operations of Coolbet, develops and operates a B2C online sports betting and casino platform that is accessible through its website in markets across Northern Europe, Latin America, and Canada.

Executives

Giuseppe Gardali	officer: President, B2B	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Endre Nesset	officer: President, B2C	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Brian P Chang	officer: Interim CFO	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Eric J Green	director	C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 1980 FESTIVAL PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 680, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Seamus M Mcgill	director	C/O GAN LIMITED,, 400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Dermot S. Smurfit	director, officer: President, CEO	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Karen Flores	director, officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Sylvia Tiscareno	officer: Chief Legal Officer	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Glenn Anders Karlsen	officer: CEO, Coolbet	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Simon Knock	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Michael Arouh	officer: Chief Legal Officer	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Michael Jr. Smurfit	director	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Susan Bracey	director	C/O YOUBET.COM, INC., 2600 WEST OLIVE AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, BURBANK CA 91505
David Goldberg	director	C/O GAN LIMITED, 400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618
Jan Roos	officer: Chief Technology Officer	400 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1900, IRVINE CA 92618