Lvji Technology Holdings (HKSE:01745) Predictability Rank

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What is Lvji Technology Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lvji Technology Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lvji Technology Holdings (HKSE:01745) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Lvji Technology Holdings Inc (HKSE:01745) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Room 501, 238 Gaotang Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, CHN

Website

https://www.lvji.cn

Lvji Technology Holdings Inc is an online tour guide provider. The company deploys software on its cloud system to provide online tour guides with proprietary contents, which include illustrated maps of tourist attractions, editorial contents and voice-over commentaries of points of interest in the tourist attractions and are implemented to include functions such as real time navigation. It generates revenue from sales of online tour guides through OTAs.

Executives

Lu Jia Technology Holdings Limited
Zang Weizhong	2101 Beneficial owner
Mithaq Capital	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Mithaq Capital Spc	2101 Beneficial owner
Mithaq Global	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zang Weizhong	2101 Beneficial owner
Fan Bao Guo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Zhen Qian Hai Chun Hua Yong Tai Qi Ye Guan Li Zi Xun He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dong Ying Ling Long Jin Shan Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dong Ying Chun Hua Zi Xun Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sunrise Boulevard Investments Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Fu Zhekuan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Zhen Shi Qi Fu Zi Ben Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shang Hai Qian Fu Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Zhou Shi Jie Ming Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Lvji Technology Holdings (HKSE:01745) Headlines

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