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Cosmo Lady (China) Holdings Co (HKSE:02298) Predictability Rank


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What is Cosmo Lady (China) Holdings Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Cosmo Lady (China) Holdings Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cosmo Lady (China) Holdings Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cosmo Lady (China) Holdings Co Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Fenggang Tianan Digital City, Building N1, Fenggang Town, Guangdong, Dongguan, CHN
Cosmo Lady (China) Holdings Co Ltd manufactures intimate wear apparel such as bras, underpants, sleepwear, loungewear, and thermal clothes. The company targets both the mass market and the high-end market with its brands that include Cosmo, Secret of City Beauty, Freeday, Mayajia, Ordifen, Rubii, and Ilsee. More than half of the company's sales are to franchisees that operate company outlet stores. The remaining sales are direct to consumers through Cosmo's self-managed company outlets and e-commerce sales. Women's apparel accounts for the vast majority of the company's total sales, and all sales are generated in China.
Executives
Pandanus Partners L.p. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Pandanus Associates Inc. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fil Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fidelity China Special Situations Plc 2101 Beneficial owner
Zheng Yaonan 2202 Interest of your spouse
Wu Xiaoli 2101 Beneficial owner
Tmf (cayman) Ltd. 2301 Trustee
Cai Shaoru 2202 Interest of your spouse
Forever Flourish International Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Zhang Shengfeng 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cai Jingqin 2202 Interest of your spouse
Lin Zonghong 2101 Beneficial owner
Xin Feng Asset Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Forever Shine Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Hong Ye Asset Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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