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ZO Future Group (HKSE:02309) Predictability Rank


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What is ZO Future Group Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ZO Future Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

ZO Future Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ZO Future Group (HKSE:02309) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » ZO Future Group (HKSE:02309) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01970 HKSE:01003 HKSE:09857 HKSE:00326 HKSE:06698 HKSE:01981 HKSE:00547 HKSE:09958 HKSE:00391 HKSE:08368 NFLX DIS XAMS:UMG LYV XPAR:BOL WBD FWONA WMG NWSA FOXA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 28 Heung Yip Road, 31st Floor, Vertical Square, Wong Chuk Hang, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.bshl.com.hk
ZO Future Group is an investment holding company principally engaged in the operation of the football club in the United Kingdom. The activity of the company includes offering season and match day tickets, television broadcasting, and local media businesses. Its segments are the operation of a professional football club; Investment in properties; and healthcare business. The company's activity primarily functions in the United Kingdom and it generates revenue through corporate hospitality income, merchandising income, sponsorship income, and conference income. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the operation of a professional football club in the UK.
Executives
Trillion Trophy Asia Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Wealthy Associates International Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Graticity Real Estate Development Co., Ltd 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Vong Pech 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lei Sutong 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Suen Cho Hung, Paul 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yong Ju You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Hong Long You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner

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