HYMC (Hycroft Mining Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Hycroft Mining Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hycroft Mining Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hycroft Mining Holding Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Hycroft Mining Holding Corp (NAS:HYMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

PO Box 3030, Winnemucca, NV, USA, 89446

Website

https://www.hycroftmining.com

Hycroft Mining Holding Corp is a gold and silver producer. Its operating mine, the Hycroft Mine, is an open-pit heap leach operation located approximately fifty four miles west of Winnemucca, Nevada.

Executives

Marni Wieshofer	director	2700 COLORADO AVE., SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Stanton K Rideout	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	C/O HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORPORATION, 8181 E. TUFTS AVE. SUITE 510, DENVER CO 80237
Diane R Garrett	director, officer: President, CEO & Director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Rebecca Jennings	officer: Senior Vice President	4300 WATER CANYON ROAD, UNIT 1, WINNEMUCCA NV 89445
Mudrick Capital Management, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stephen A Lang	director	1 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 1500, TORONTO A6 M5J 2P1
Eric Sprott	10 percent owner	2700-200 BAY STREET, ROYAL BANK PLAZA SOUTH TOWER, TORONTO A6 M5J 2J1
David C Naccarati	director	ONE NORTH CENTRAL AVENUE, CORPORATE SECRETARY DEPARTMENT, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Sean D. Goodman	director	11500 ASH STREET, LEAWOOD KS 66211
2176423 Ontario Ltd.	10 percent owner	200 BAY STREET, SUITE 2600, ROYAL BANK PLAZA, SOUTH TOWER, TORONTO A6 M5J 2J1
American Multi-cinema, Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE AMC WAY, 11500 ASH STREET, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE AMC WAY, 11500 ASH STREET, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Whitebox Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD., SUITE 500, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Whitebox General Partner Llc	10 percent owner	3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD., SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Highbridge Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	277 PARK AVE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10172