ICDI (Independence Contract Drilling) Predictability Rank

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What is Independence Contract Drilling Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Independence Contract Drilling Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Independence Contract Drilling Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Independence Contract Drilling Inc (OTCPK:ICDI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

20475 State Highway 249, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77070

Website

https://www.icdrilling.com

Independence Contract Drilling Inc is engaged in providing land-based contract drilling services for oil and natural gas producers. The company constructs its own and operates a premium land rig fleet. It develops and assembles its ShaleDriller series rig which is used for the development of oil and gas properties. The company's customers for contract drilling services in the United States include oil and natural gas companies, independent oil and natural gas companies, as well as various small to mid-sized publicly traded and privately held oil and gas companies.

Executives

Brian Berman	director	20475 STATE HIGHWAY 249, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77070
Msd Capital L P	10 percent owner	1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017-5407
Msd Credit Opportunity Master Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	ONE VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Msd Pcof Partners Lxxiii, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Msd Private Credit Opportunity (non-eci) Fund, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Michael S Dell	10 percent owner	C/O DELL INC., ONE DELL WAY, ROUND ROCK TX 78682-2244
Msd Energy Investments, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Msd Partners, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	ONE VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
William Monroe	10 percent owner	C/O HIGIER ALLEN & LAUTIN, P.C., 2711 N. HASKELL AVE., SUITE 2400, DALLAS TX 75204
James Minmier	director	777 N.W. 63RD ST., OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Daniel F Mcnease	director	2800 POST OAK BLVD, STE 5450, HOUSTON TX 77056-6127
Barrett Robert J. Iv	director	20475 STATE HIGHWAY 249, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77070
Vincent J Cebula	director	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 34 TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Christopher Gleysteen	director	ONE VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Scott A. Keller	officer: SVP - SALES AND MARKETING	20475 SH 249, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77070