IGMS (IGM Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is IGM Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IGM Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IGM Biosciences Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » IGM Biosciences Inc (NAS:IGMS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

325 East Middlefield Road, Mountain View, CA, USA, 94043

Website

https://www.igmbio.com

IGM Biosciences Inc is a biotechnology company engaged in the development of IgM antibody therapeutics for the treatment of cancer, infectious diseases, and autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Its IgM antibody technology platform is suited for developing T cell engagers, receptor cross-linking agonists, and targeted cytokines. Its product candidate, Aplitabart: An IgM antibody targeting Death Receptor 5 (DR5) proteins, for the treatment of colorectal cancer; Imvotamab: A bispecific for severe systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and one for severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA); and IGM-2644: A bispecific T cell engaging IgM antibody targeting CD38 and CD3 proteins, currently planned for evaluation in autoimmune disease.

Executives

Steven Weber	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O AEGLEA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 805 LAS CIMAS PARKWAY, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78746
Lisa Lynn Decker	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O ATRECA INC., 500 SAGINAW DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Misbah Tahir	officer: Chief Financial Officer	325 E. MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Chris H Takimoto	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O IGM BIOSCIENCES, INC., 325 E. MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Fred Schwarzer	director, officer: CEO and President	325 E. MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Bruce Keyt	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	325 E. MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Julie Hambleton	director	C/O FIVE PRIME THERAPEUTICS, INC., TWO CORPORATE DRIVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
George Gauthier	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O IGM BIOSCIENCES, INC., 325 E. MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Thompson Elizabeth H.z.	director	C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 TOWER PLACE, 12TH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jakob Haldor Topsoe	director, 10 percent owner	325 E MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Christina Teng Topsoe	director, 10 percent owner	325 E MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Redmile Group, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
M Kathleen Behrens	director	6701 KAISER DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94555
Michael D Loberg	director	C/O ARQULE, INC., 1 WALL STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BURLINGTON MA 01803