What is Opus Genetics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Opus Genetics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Opus Genetics Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8 Davis Drive, Suite 220, Durham, NC, USA, 27709
Opus Genetics Inc is a clinical-stage ophthalmic biopharmaceutical company developing therapies to treat patients with inherited retinal diseases (IRDs) and therapies to treat patients with other retinal and refractive disorders. The pipeline includes adeno-associated virus (AAV)-based gene therapies that address mutations in genes that cause different forms of bestrophinopathy, Leber congenital amaurosis (LCA), and retinitis pigmentosa. The pipeline also includes Phentolamine Ophthalmic Solution 0.75%, a non-selective alpha-1 and alpha-2 adrenergic antagonist to reduce pupil size, and APX3330, a novel small-molecule inhibitor of Ref-1 to slow the progression of non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy.
Executives
| George Magrath |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
37000 GRAND RIVER AVE, SUITE 120, FARMINGTON HILLS MI 48335 |
| Ronil A. Patel |
officer: SVP, Operations & Bus. Dev. |
37000 GRAND RIVER AVE, SUITE 120, FARMINGTON HILLS MI 48335 |
| Mina Sooch |
director, officer: President and CEO |
17199 N. LAUREL PARK DRIVE, SUITE 401, LIVONIA MI 48152 |
| Manuso James S J |
director |
5130 ROUTE 212, WILLOW NY 12495 |
| Jay Pepose |
director |
37000 GRAND RIVER AVE, SUITE 120, FARMINGTON HILLS MI 48335 |
| Susan Benton |
director |
3916 VALRICO GROVE DRIVE, VALRICO FL 33594 |
| Rabourn Amy Zaremba |
officer: VP of Finance |
37000 GRAND RIVER AVE, SUITE 120, FARMINGTON HILLS MI 48335 |
| Cam Gallagher |
director |
6042 CORNERSTONE CT. WEST, SUITE B, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Alan R Meyer |
director |
|
| Sean Ainsworth |
director |
37000 GRAND RIVER AVE, SUITE 120, FARMINGTON HILLS MI 48335 |
| Bernhard Hoffmann |
officer: VP of Corp. Dev. & Ops & Sec. |
37000 GRAND RIVER AVE, SUITE 120, FARMINGTON HILLS MI 48335 |
| Lara Sullivan |
director |
C/O REXAHN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 455, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Ben Gil Price |
director |
8297 CHAMPIONS GATE BLVD. #444, CHAMPIONS GATE FL 33896 |
| Douglas J Swirsky |
officer: President and CFO |
C/O REXAHN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD SUITE 455, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Lisa Nolan |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
36 ROCKLAND MILLS, ROCKLAND DE 19732 |
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