Iterum Therapeutics (Iterum Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Iterum Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Iterum Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Iterum Therapeutics (Iterum Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Iterum Therapeutics PLC (NAS:ITRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Fitzwilliam Court, 1st Floor, Leeson Close, Dublin, IRL, 2

Website

https://www.iterumtx.com

Iterum Therapeutics PLC is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in developing and commercializing sulopenem to be the first and only oral and intravenous branded penem available globally. Its sulopenem program has the potential to offer a solution to the problem of antibiotic resistance and the toxicity limitations of existing agents. The company operates as a single business segment, which is the development and commercialization of innovative treatments for drug-resistant bacterial infections.

Executives

Michael W. Dunne	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	DURATA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 89 HEADQUARTERS PLAZA NORTH, 14TH FLOOR, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Fishman Corey N.	director, officer: President & CEO	DURATA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 89 HEADQUARTERS PLAZA NORTH, 14TH FLOOR, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Sailaja Puttagunta	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O BIOMX LTD., 7 PINHAS SAPIR ST., FLOOR 2, NESS ZIONA L3 7414002
Brenton Karl Ahrens	director	2765 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Judith M. Matthews	officer: Chief Financial Officer	200 WEST MONROE ST., SUITE 1575, CHICAGO IL 60606
Beth Hecht	director	C/O NEOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2940 N. HIGHWAY 360, GRAND PRAIRIE TX 75050
Alexander J Denner	10 percent owner	C/O SARISSA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sarissa Capital Hawkeye Fund Lp	10 percent owner	660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sarissa Capital Catapult Fund Llc	10 percent owner	660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sarissa Capital Master Fund Ii Lp	10 percent owner	C/O SARISSA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sarissa Capital Offshore Master Fund Lp	10 percent owner	C/O SARISSA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 660 STEAMBOAT ROAD 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sarissa Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Peter Kolchinsky	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116