KAR (Openlane) Predictability Rank

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What is Openlane Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Openlane Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Openlane Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Openlane Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Openlane Inc (NYSE:KAR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11299 North Illinois Street, Suite 500, Carmel, IN, USA, 46032

Website

https://corporate.openlane.com

Openlane Inc provides a digital marketplace for used vehicles, connecting sellers and buyers in North America and Europe for fast and transparent transactions. Its services include financing, repossessions, repairs, transportation, warranty, and inventory management. The company operates used-vehicle auctions and has two main segments: Marketplace and Finance, with majority revenue coming from the Marketplace segment, which to used vehicle remarketing, including marketplace services, remarketing, or make ready services and all are interrelated, synergistic elements along the auto remarketing chain. The Finance segment, through AFC engaged in business of providing short-term, inventory-secured financing to independent vehicle dealers.

Executives

Brad S. Lakhia	officer: EVP & CFO	19100 RIDGEWOOD PARKWAY, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
James P Coyle	officer: EVP, Chief Digital Officer	11299 NORTH ILLINOIS STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Money James E. Ii	officer: AFC President	13085 HAMILTON CROSSING BLVD., CARMEL IN 46032
Kelly Peter	officer: Pres. & CEO, OPENLANE	C/O KAR AUCTION SERVICES, INC., 11299 NORTH ILLINOIS STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Michael T. Kestner	director	13085 HAMILTON CROSSING BLVD., CARMEL IN 46032
J Mark Howell	director	C/O ANGIE'S LIST, INC., 1030 EAST WASHINGTON STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46202
James P Hallett	officer: CEO
Srisu Subrahmanyam	officer: Pres KAR Svcs Group, EVP Ops	11299 NORTH ILLINOIS STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Justin T. Davis	officer: President of BacklotCars	11299 NORTH ILLINOIS STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Scott A Anderson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	11299 NORTH ILLINOIS STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Mary Ellen Smith	director	11299 NORTH ILLINOIS STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Ignition Acquisition Holdings Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O APAX PARTNERS L.P., 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ignition Acquisition Holdings Lp	10 percent owner	C/O APAX PARTNERS L.P., 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ignition Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O APAX PARTNERS L.P., 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ignition Parent Lp	10 percent owner	C/O APAX PARTNERS L.P., 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022