What is Lixte Biotechnology Holdings Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Lixte Biotechnology Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Lixte Biotechnology Holdings (Lixte Biotechnology Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
680 East Colorado Boulevard, Suite 180, Pasadena, CA, USA, 91101
Lixte Biotechnology Holdings Inc is a drug discovery company that has a developed unique, proprietary, first-in-class protein phosphatase inhibitor, LB-100, as its lead clinical compound. LB-100 has potential widespread use as an anti-cancer agent when used alone and in combination with standard anti-cancer therapies, including cytotoxic drugs, radiation, and immune checkpoint blockers. The Company's product pipeline is primarily focused on inhibitors of protein phosphatases, used alone and in combination with cytotoxic agents and x-ray and immune checkpoint blockers.
Executives
| Rene Bernards |
director |
KONINGSVAREN 37, ABCOUDE P7 1391AD |
| Van Der Baan Bastiaan Jeroen |
director |
HOGEWEG 4-H, AMSTERDAM P7 1098CB |
| Eric Forman |
10 percent owner |
117 E. 29TH ST., APT. 5A, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Regina Brown |
director |
248 ROUTE 25A, NO. 2, EAST SETAUKET NY 11733 |
| Glenn Krinsky |
10 percent owner |
C/O SRKP 1, INC., 1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 310, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Yun Yen |
director |
1301 OAKLAWN ROAD, ARCADIA CA 91006 |
| Robert Greenberg |
10 percent owner |
SKECHERS USA INC, 228 MANHATTAN BEACH BLVD, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266 |
| Gil Schwartzberg |
10 percent owner |
269 S. BEVERLY DR., #1315, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212 |
| Philip F Palmedo |
director |
1801 CENTURY PARK EAST #1600, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| John S Kovach |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres., CFO & Secty |
1801 CENTURY PARK EAST #1600, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Stephen J. Forman |
director |
248 ROUTE 25A, NO. 2, EAST SETAUKET NY 11733 |
| Hung Tak Ho |
10 percent owner |
MAYFAIR BY THE SEA II, TOWER T8, 1/F, UNIT A, 21 FO CHUN ROAD, PAK SHEK KOK, TAIPO K3 00000 |
| Robert N Weingarten |
officer: Vice President and CFO |
5439 LOCKHURST DRIVE, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367 |
| James Miser |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
680 E COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 180, PASADENA CA 91101 |
| Jane Merrill Riggs |
10 percent owner |
4852 SAINT ANDRES AVENUE, LA VERNE CA 91750 |
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