Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. (LSE:CCB) Predictability Rank

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What is Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. (LSE:CCB) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. (LSE:CCB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. was incorporated in Greece and founded in 1969. It took its current form in August 2000 through the acquisition of the Coca-Cola Beverages PLC by Hellenic Bottling Company S.A. The Company is headquartered in Athens. Its two major shareholders are the Kar-Tess Holding S.A., a private holding company, and The Coca-Cola Company. The Company and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the production, sales and distribution of non-alcoholic ready to drink beverages, under franchise from The Coca-Cola Company. The Company distributes its products in 27 countries in Europe and Nigeria. The Company has one business, being the production, sale and distribution of non-alcoholic, ready-to-drink beverages. The Company operates in 28 such as Austria, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland and Switzerland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, FYROM, Moldova, Montenegro, Nigeria, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine. The Company is licensed to produce, sell and distribute a range of beverages. The Coca-Cola Company owns the trademarks for most of these. It supplies the concentrates and is largely responsible for consumer marketing. The Company's product portfolio consists of the world-leading brands Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Light (diet Coke), Fanta and Sprite brands that it owns manufactures and distributes, including Amita, Avra, Deep RiverRock and Fruice brands licensed by other companies, such as Nestea and Monster. The Company produces, markets and sells its customers valuable brands, in addition to the 136 brands. In 2012, sparkling beverages of The Coca-Cola Company accounted for 62% of its sales volume, low calorie sparkling beverages accounted for 6%, while still and water beverages accounted for approximately 32% of its sales volume. With more than 30 water brands in its portfolio, it focuses on generating value through the 'on-the-go' or immediate consumption occasion.