Lyft (LYFT) Predictability Rank

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What is Lyft Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lyft Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lyft Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lyft Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Lyft Inc (NAS:LYFT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LYFT:Mexico 1LYFT:Italy LY0:Germany

Address

185 Berry Street, Suite 400, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107

Website

https://www.lyft.com

Lyft is the second-largest ride-sharing service provider in the us and Canada, connecting riders and drivers over the Lyft app. Incorporated in 2013, Lyft offers a variety of rides via private vehicles, including traditional private rides, shared rides, and luxury ones. Besides ride-share, Lyft also has entered the bike- and scooter-share market to bring multimodal transportation options to users.

Executives

Logan Green	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
John Patrick Zimmer	director, officer: President	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
John David Risher	director	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Lisa Blackwood-kapral	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Kristin Sverchek	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Erin Brewer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	MCKESSON CORPORATION, ONE POST STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Prashant Aggarwal	director	C/O ARLO TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 350 EAST PLUMERIA DR, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Mary Agnes Wilderotter	director	115 ALPINE TERRACE, OAKLAND CA 94618
Dave Stephenson	director	C/O AIRBNB, INC., 888 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Janey Whiteside	director	C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION, 595 MARKET ST., #200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Elaine Paul	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Ashwin Raj	officer: Head of Rideshare	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
David Lawee	director	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Brian Keith Roberts	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 5000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Ariel M. Cohen	director	C/O LYFT, INC., 185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107