Lyra Therapeutics (Lyra Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Lyra Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lyra Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lyra Therapeutics (Lyra Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Lyra Therapeutics Inc (NAS:LYRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

480 Arsenal Way, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://lyratherapeutics.com

Lyra Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage therapeutics company focused on the development and commercialization of novel integrated drug and delivery solutions for the localized treatment of patients with ear, nose, and throat diseases. The company's technology platform, XTreo, is designed to precisely and consistently deliver medicines directly to the affected tissue for sustained periods with a single administration. Its initial product candidates, LYR-210 and LYR-220, are bioresorbable polymeric matrices designed to be administered in a brief, non-invasive, in-office procedure and intended to deliver up to six months of continuous drug therapy to the sinonasal passages for the treatment of chronic rhinosinusitis, or CRS.

Executives

Harlan Waksal	director, officer: Executive Chair	WAKSAL CONSULTING LLC, 7 NORTH WILLOW STREET, SUITE 6, MONTCLAIR NJ 07042
Nbvm Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	950 WINTER STREET, SUITE 4600, WALTHAM MA 02451
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Edward T Anderson	director, 10 percent owner	950 WINTER ST SUITE 4600, WATHAM MA 02451
John E Bishop	officer: Chief Technology Officer	675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Richard Nieman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O LYRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472
C Ann Merrifield	director
James R Tobin	director	C/O CURIS INC, 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Jason Cavalier	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LYRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1480 ARSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Snyderman Nancy Lynn Md	director	37 PHEASANT HILL ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Pamela E. Nelson	officer: Senior VP, Regulatory Affairs	C/O LYRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1480 ARSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Robert E. Richard	officer: SVP of R&D	C10 LYRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1480 ALSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Soleus Private Equity Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O SOLEUS PRIVATE EQUITY GP I, LLC, 104 FIELD POINT ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Soleus Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	104 FIELD POINT ROAD, FLOOR 2, GREENWICH CT 06830
Polaris Venture Partners Special Founders' Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210