MCN (XAI Madison Equity Premiumome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is XAI Madison Equity Premiumome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

XAI Madison Equity Premiumome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

XAI Madison Equity Premiumome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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XAI Madison Equity Premiumome Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » XAI Madison Equity Premium Income Fund (NYSE:MCN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

321 North Clark Street, Suite 2430, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.xainvestments.com

XAI Madison Equity Premium Income Fund is an investment management company. The Fund invests in an actively managed equity portfolio comprised of individual stocks and covered call options. The Fund's primary investment objective is to provide high level of current income and gains, with a secondary objective of capital appreciation.

Executives

Jill M Friedow	director	550 SCIENCE DR, MADISON WI 53711
Imhoff James R Jr	other: Former Director	550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Scott C Jones	director	C/O XA INVESTMENTS, 1290 BROADWAY STE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Patrick F Ryan	officer: President	MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Steven J Fredricks	officer: CCO	MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Richard E Struthers	director	2340 WEST COUNTY ROAD C, SAINT PAUL MN 55113-2528
Kevin S Thompson	officer: Chief Legal Officer	MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
George W Karpus	10 percent owner
Karpus Management, Inc.	10 percent owner	183 SULLY'S TRAIL, PITTSFORD NY 14534
Steven Paul Riege	director	11613 N LAFAYETTE PLACE, MEQUON WI 53092
Lisa R Lange	officer: CCO	MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Pamela Marie Krill	officer: CLO and General Counsel	550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53562
Holly S Baggot	officer: Secretary and Asst Treasurer	550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Paul Anthony Lefurgey	officer: Vice President	1817 AUTUMN HILL DRIVE, VERONA WI 53593
Wayne Richard Mason	officer: CCO	2002 E PALMAIRE AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85020