MTACU (MedTech Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is MedTech Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MedTech Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MedTech Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MedTech Acquisition Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » MedTech Acquisition Corp (NAS:MTACU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

48 Maple Avenue, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830

Website

MedTech Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Magnetar Financial Llc	10 percent owner	1603 ORRINGTON AVE., 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
Magnetar Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	1603 ORRINGTON AVE., 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
Supernova Management Llc	10 percent owner	1603 ORRINGTON AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
David J. Snyderman	10 percent owner	C/O MAGNETAR FINANCIAL LLC, 1603 ORRINGTON AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
David L Treadwell	director	222 S 15TH STREET, SUITE 600 N, OMAHA NE 68102
Manuel Aguero	director	600 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thierry B. Thaure	director	3957 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545
David J Matlin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer
Karim Karti	director	C/O IRHYTHM TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 650 TOWNSEND STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Christopher C Dewey	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	120 BROADWAY, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10271
Robert H. Weiss	officer: Chief Admin Officer and Sec.	585 WEED STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Maurice R Ferre	director	C/O MAKO SURGICAL CORP., 2555 DAVIE ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33317
Ivan Delevic	director	C/O MAKO SURGICAL CORP., 2555 DAVIE ROAD, SUITE 110, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33317
Medtech Acquisition Sponsor Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Martin William Roche	director	600 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022