Nerdwallet (Nerdwallet) Predictability Rank

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What is Nerdwallet Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nerdwallet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nerdwallet (Nerdwallet) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Nerdwallet Inc (NAS:NRDS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

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https://www.nerdwallet.com

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Executives

Maurice Kevin Taylor	director	55 HAWTHORNE STREET, 11TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Tim Chao-ming Chen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	55 HAWTHORNE, FLOOR 11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Kevin Yuann	officer: Chief Business Officer	55 HAWTHORNE, FLOOR 11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Samuel Yount	officer: VP, General Manager	55 HAWTHORNE STREET, 11TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
John Caine	officer: Chief Product Officer	350 FIFTH AVE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
Lauren Stclair	officer: Chief Financial Officer	55 HAWTHORNE, FLOOR 11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Kelly Gillease	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	55 HAWTHORNE, FLOOR 11, 5TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Lynne Marie Laube	director	C/O CARDLYTICS, INC., 675 PONCE DE LEON AVENUE NE, SUITE 6000, ATLANTA GA 30308
Thomas Loverro	director	55 HAWTHORNE, FLOOR 11, 5TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jennifer Ceran	director	C/O QUOTIENT TECHNOLOGY INC., 400 LOGUE AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Kenneth Thomas Mcbride	director	STAMPS.COM INC., 1990 E. GRAND AVE., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Robinson James D Iii	director	ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Innovius Capital Gp I, Llc	10 percent owner	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3720, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Jules A. Maltz	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 2, SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Institutional Venture Management Xiv, Llc	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 2, SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025