NVFY (Nova Lifestyle) Predictability Rank

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What is Nova Lifestyle Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nova Lifestyle Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nova Lifestyle Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Nova Lifestyle Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Nova Lifestyle Inc (NAS:NVFY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6565 East Washington Boulevard, Commerce, CA, USA, 90040

Website

https://www.novalifestyle.com

Nova Lifestyle Inc is a designer and lifestyle furniture company. It distributes and retails contemporary styled residential and commercial furniture. The firms marketing and sales platform offers retail as well as online selection and purchase fulfillment internationally. The company also sells managed a variety of bedding foundation components. Its collection of lifestyle furniture brands includes Diamond Sofa. The firm's products are made in the United States and Asia. Its customers mainly comprise distributors and retailers having specific geographic coverages that deploy middle to high-end private label home furnishings. The company operates in one business and industry segment: the design and sale of furniture.

Executives

Umesh Patel	director	6565 E. WASHINGTON BLVD, C/O NOVA LIFESTYLE, INC., COMMERCE CA 90040
Min Su	director, officer: Corporate Secretary	C/O NOVA LIFESTYLE, INC., 6565 E WASHINGTON BLVD, COMMERCE CA 90040
Jeffrey Chuang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NOVA LIFESTYLE, INC., 6565 E. WASHINGTON BLVD, COMMERCE CA 90040
Steven Qiang Liu	10 percent owner	6541 E. WASHINGTON BLVD, C/O NOVA LIFESTYLE, INC., COMMERCE CA 90040
Yuen Ching Ho	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer	6541 E. WASHINGTON BLVD, C/O NOVA LIFESTYLE, INC., COMMERCE CA 90040
Huy P La	director	6565 E WASHINGTON BLVD, COMMERCE CA 90040
Joyal St.	10 percent owner	6565 E WASHINGTON BLVD #518, COMMERCE CA 90040
Ya Ming Wong	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	6541 E. WASHINGTON BLVD, C/O NOVA LIFESTYLE, INC., COMMERCE CA 90040
Thanh H Lam	director, officer: President	6541 E. WASHINGTON BLVD, C/O NOVA LIFESTYLE, INC., COMMERCE CA 90040
Peter M Kam	director	6541 E WASHINGTON BLVD, COMMERCE CA 90040
Bin Liu	director	40 WALL STREET, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
James R Talevich	director	20202 WINDROW DR, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Michael J Viotto	director	444 E. HUNTINGTON DR., SUITE 105, ARCADIA CA 91006
Chung Shing Yam	director	6541 E WASHINGTON BLVD, COMMERCE CA 90040
Alex Li	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	NO. 6 JIEFANGNAN LU, HEXI DISTRICT, TIANJIN F4 30000