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OKSBP.PFD (Southwest Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Southwest Bancorp Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Southwest Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Southwest Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Southwest Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Southwest Bancorp Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Southwest Bancorp Inc operates in the financial domain of the United States. The Company focuses on providing a range of commercial and consumer banking services, including commercial and consumer lending, deposit and investment services, specialized cash management, and other financial services and products. A holding company of Bank SNB, it places its services within four segments, namely, Oklahoma Banking, Texas Banking, Kansas Banking and Other Operations, with the Oklahoma division accounting for the major share of revenues. The Other Operations segment includes funds management and corporate investments.
Executives
Shrum Kayse M Do director 15469 S. 353RD EAST AVENUE, COWETA OK 74429
Steven C Davis director 4574 WEST TRIPLETT ROAD, GUTHRIE OK 73044
Patrice D Douglas director 1712 CROSSBOW, EDMOND OK 73034
John Thomas Danielson officer: EVP and CBO 1041 PHANTOM RIDER TRAIL, SPRING BRANCH TX 78070
Gregg S Jaynes officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer 13254 S. 114TH EAST AVE, BROKEN ARROW OK 74011
Brent Aaron Bates officer: EVP and Chief Credit Officer 603 INVERNESS COURT, NORMAN OK 73072
Priscilla J Barnes officer: SEVP and COO RR3 BOX 63A, HENNESSEY OK 73742
Mark W Funke officer: President and CEO C/O FREDERIC DORWART, 124 E FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Shockley Joe T Jr officer: EVP and CFO 101 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Rusty Neal Laforge officer: EVP, General Counsel 3324 QUAIL CREEK ROAD, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73120
Crockett David S Jr director 11609 VALLEYDALE, DALLAS TX 75230
James M Johnson director 672 TRAILWOOD LANE, MARIETTA GA 30064
John Cohlmia director 12804 FOX FOREST CIRCLE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73142
Larry J Lanie director 419 BENTLEY MANOR, SAN ANTONIO TX 78249
Thomas D Berry director 2302 W 8TH, STILLWATER OK 74074

Southwest Bancorp Headlines

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By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 11-23-2010

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By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 12-14-2010