OPY (Oppenheimer Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Oppenheimer Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oppenheimer Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Oppenheimer Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Oppenheimer Holdings Inc (NYSE:OPY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

85 Broad Street, New York, NY, USA, 10004

Website

https://www.oppenheimer.com

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc conducts activities in the securities industry. The company is involved in retail securities brokerage, investment banking (both corporate and public finance), institutional sales and trading, market-making, research, trust services, and investment advisory and asset management services. The company has three segments: private client, asset management, and capital markets. The Private Client segment, commissions and a proportionate amount of fee income earned on assets under management ("AUM"), net interest earnings on client margin loans and cash balances, fees from money market funds, and custodian fees. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the Americas, with the rest from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

Executives

Evan Behrens	director	C/O SEACOR HOLDINGS INC., 2200 ELLER DRIVE, P.O. BOX 13038, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33316
Dennis P Mcnamara	officer: Secretary	C/O OPPENHEIMER & CO. INC., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Stacy J. Kanter	director	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Brad M Watkins	officer: CFO	72 CANDY LANE, SYOSSET NY 11791
Paul M Friedman	director	11 DEERFIELD LANE, SCARSDALE NY 10583
R Lawrence Roth	director	C/O OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
A Winn Oughtred	director	52 MAPLE AVE, TORONTO ONTARIO A6 M4W 2T7
Timothy Martin Dwyer	director	60 BEACON HILL ROAD, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
William Ehrhardt	director	101 PARK BLVD NORTH, VENICE FL 34285
Teresa Glasser	director	1044 GRAND ISLE TERRACE, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33418
Robert S Lowenthal	director	85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Albert G Lowenthal	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Jeffrey J Alfano	officer: CFO	C/O OPPENHEIMER & CO. INC., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Morris Goldfarb	director	C/O G-III APPAREL GROUP, 345 W 37TH ST, NY NY 10018
Richard Crystal	director	41 BLACK BIRCH LN, SCARSDALE NY 10583