GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Perception Capital Corp III (NAS:PFTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

PFTA (Perception Capital III) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Perception Capital III Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Perception Capital III Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Perception Capital III Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Perception Capital III's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Perception Capital III Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Perception Capital Corp III (NAS:PFTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BYNO CNGL IXAQF VMCA BLUAF AITR CDAQF DTSQ FSHP IRAA AACT ANSC EQV AAM NETD CCIX IPXX GPAT ALF MBAV
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3109 West 50th Street, No. 207, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55410
Website
https://www.perceptioniii.com
Perception Capital Corp III is a blank check company. It is formed for the purpose of effectuating a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or other similar business combination with one or more businesses.
Executives
John P Stanfield officer: Chief Financial Officer 9440 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 301, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Campbell Corey 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O PERCEPTION CAPITAL CORP. II, 315 LAKE STREET EAST, SUITE 301, WAYZATA MN 55391
Karrie Willis director C/O PERCEPTION CAPITAL CORP. II, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Sheridan James J. Iii 10 percent owner, officer: Co-President C/O PERCEPTION CAPITAL CORP. II, 315 LAKE STREET EAST, SUITE 301, WAYZATA MN 55391
Thomas J. Abood director 2415 ANNAPOLIS LANE, SUITE 100, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Tao Tan 10 percent owner, officer: Co-President 7809 WOODMONT AVENUE, SUITE 200, BETHESDA MD 20814
Rick Gaenzle director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1601 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 4141, DALLAS TX 75201
Scott Honour director 10877 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Rudolph R Reinfrank director C/O ONS ACQUISITION, 407 N. MAPLE DRIVE, GROUND FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
George Thompson Hutton director C/O WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP, LTD, 80 SOUTH MAIN STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Seraina Macia director 175 WATER STREET, NEW YORK NY 10038
Harvey Stuart C. Jr director C/O TRUSTWAVE HOLDINGS, INC., 70 W. MADISON, SUITE 1050, CHICAGO IL 60602
Iii Paul Desmarais director 325 GREENWICH AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Pfta I Lp 10 percent owner 161 BAY STREET, SUITE 5000, TORONTO A6 M5J 2S1
Pfta I Gp Inc. 10 percent owner 161 BAY STREET, SUITE 5000, TORONTO A6 M5J 2S1