PMN (ProMIS Neurosciences) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2005. Start your Free Trial

What is ProMIS Neurosciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ProMIS Neurosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ProMIS Neurosciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ProMIS Neurosciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ProMIS Neurosciences Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ProMIS Neurosciences Inc (NAS:PMN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

23J0:Germany 23J0:Germany

Address

1920 Yonge Street, Suite 200, Toronto, ON, CAN, M4S 3E2

Website

https://www.promisneurosciences.com

ProMIS Neurosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on generating and developing antibody therapeutics selectively targeting toxic misfolded proteins in neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and multiple system atrophy (MSA). The company applies its thermodynamic, computational discovery platform, ProMIS, and Collective Coordinates to predict novel targets known as Disease Specific Epitopes on the molecular surface of misfolded proteins.

Executives

Neil Cashman	director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
Madge K. Shafmaster	director	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
Patrick D. Kirwin	director	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
Larry Douglas Altstiel	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O NEUROTROPE, INC., 50 PARK PLACE, SUITE 1401, NEWARK NJ 07102
Daniel E. Geffken	officer: Chief Financial Officer	DAMONMILL SQUARE, SUITE 6A, CONCORD MA 01742
Jeremy M. Sclar	10 percent owner	33 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 3000, CHESTNUT HILL MA 02467
Gail M Farfel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	142 TEMPLE STREET, SUITE 205, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Max A. Milbury	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
Gavin T. Malenfant	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
Johanne Kaplan	officer: Chief Development Officer	PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
Eugene Williams	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
Richard J. Gregory	director	830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Neil K Warma	director	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2
William W Wyman	director	4 N. BALCH STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Josh Mandel-brehm	director	C/O PROMIS NEUROSCIENCES INC., SUITE 200, 1920 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M4S 3E2