GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Galleon Gold Corp (OTCPK:PNCKF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

PNCKF (Galleon Gold) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Galleon Gold Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Galleon Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Galleon Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Galleon Gold's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Galleon Gold Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Galleon Gold Corp (OTCPK:PNCKF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XCNQ:QIM TSXV:LVG TSXV:CVB TSXV:BRAU TSXV:SOI TSXV:VAU TSXV:NPR XCNQ:LIVE TSXV:MLO TSXV:FMAN SHSE:601899 NEM TSX:AEM TSX:WPM TSX:ABX MIC:PLZL TSX:FNV JSE:GFI AU TSX:K
Traded in Other Exchanges
3H90:Germany GGO:Canada
Address
161 Bay Street, 27th Floor, Suite 2700, PO Box 508, TD Canada Trust Tower, Toronto, ON, CAN, M5J 2S1
Website
https://www.galleongold.com
Galleon Gold Corp is principally engaged in the business of acquiring, exploring, and developing mineral properties in Canada and the United States, those containing gold, silver, and associated base and precious metals. The projects of the company include West Cache Gold in Ontario, the Golden Trove project in Idaho, and other properties.
Executives
J Jay Jaski director, officer: Chairman, CEO 95 WELLINGTON STREET W SUITE 900, PO BOX 28, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Harry Jeffrey Blum director 20 EGLINTON AVE W STE 2100, PO BOX 2014, TORONTO A6 M4R 1K8
William Stearns Vaughan director 5655 SOUTH YOSEMITE STREET, SUITE 200, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
James A Richardson officer: Chief Financial Officer 228 WALMER ROAD, TORONTO A6 M5R 3R7
Hull Consulting Services Ltd. officer: Chief Operation Officer 5511 WICKLOW DRIVE, OTTAWA A6 K4M 1C4
David Robert Mcpherson director 75 OCTOBER DRIVE, ST CATHERINES A6 Z2N 6J4
Robert David Russell director 5655 SOUTH YOSEMITE STREET, SUITE 200, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Rodney Alan Blakestad director 1602 W. PLACITA SIN NIEVE, SAHUARITA AZ 85629
Gerald G Carlson director
Robert Angrisano director, 10 percent owner, officer: President
Monty D Moore director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO
Edward H Waale director
Michael W Sharon director
Stuart Havenstrite director 8111 MASO DRIVE, SANDY UT 84093
Nevada Star Resource Corp director 161 BAY STREET, 27TH FLOOR, PO BOX 508, TORONTO A6 M5J 2S1