PRLD (Prelude Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Prelude Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Prelude Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Prelude Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Prelude Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Prelude Therapeutics Inc (NAS:PRLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

175 Innovation Boulevard, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19805

Website

https://www.preludetx.com

Prelude Therapeutics Incorp is a clinical stage precision oncology company focused on discovering and developing small molecule therapies optimized to target the key driver mechanisms in cancers with high unmet needs. The company's pipeline includes four candidates currently in clinical development: PRT1419, a potent, selective inhibitor of MCL1; PRT2527, a potent and selective CDK9 inhibitor, PRT3645, a next-generation CDK4/6 inhibitor, and PRT3789 a first-in-class SMARCA2/BRM protein degrader.

Executives

Krishna Vaddi	director, officer: President, CEO	C/O PRELUDE THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 200 POWDER MILL ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Andrew Combs	officer: EVP, Head of Chemistry	C/O PRELUDE THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 200 POWDER MILL ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Bryant David Lim	officer: Chief Legal Counsel, Corp Sec.	C/O IDERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 505 EAGLEVIEW BLVD., SUITE 212, EXTON PA 19341
Laurent Chardonnet	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AXCELLA HEALTH INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
David P Bonita	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC, 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jane Huang	officer: President, CMO	C/O MOURANT OZANNES CORPORATE SERVICES, 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
L.p. 667,	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Brothers Life Sciences Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Julian Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Felix Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Deborah Morosini	officer: EVP, Chief of Clinical Affairs	C/O PRELUDE THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 200 POWDER MILL ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19803
David J Mauro	officer: Chief Medical Officer	36 TERRELL DRIVE, WASHINGTON CROSS PA 18977
Christopher Pierce	officer: EVP and Chief of Business Oper	C/O PRELUDE THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 200 POWDER MILL ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19803