PWSC (PowerSchool Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is PowerSchool Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PowerSchool Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PowerSchool Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » PowerSchool Holdings Inc (NYSE:PWSC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

150 Parkshore Drive, Folsom, CA, USA, 95630

Website

https://www.powerschool.com

PowerSchool Holdings Inc is a provider of cloud-based software to the K-12 education market. Its cloud-based technology platform helps schools and districts efficiently manage state reporting and related compliance, special education, finance, HR, talent, registration, attendance, funding, learning, instruction, grading, college and career readiness, assessments, and analytics in one unified platform. The Company's integrated technology approach streamlines operations aggregates disparate data sets and develops insights using predictive modeling and machine learning. It earns revenue from subscription offerings, perpetual software licenses, maintenance and support services, and professional services.

Executives

Shivani Stumpf	officer: CPO	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DR., FOLSOM CA 95630
Eric Ryan Shander	officer: Chief Financial Officer	100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Hardeep Gulati	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630
Devendra Singh	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630
Anthony Kender	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DR, FOLSOM CA 95630
Fred Studer	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DR, FOLSOM CA 95630
Zach Levitt	director	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DR., FOLSOM CA 95630
Marcy Daniel	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630
Angelina Hendraka	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630
Michael C. Bisignano	officer: Chief Legal Officer	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Judy Cotte	director	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630
Anthony Joseph Miller	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630
Maulik Datanwala	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630
Onex Partners Iv Gp Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, 27 HOSPITAL RD., GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Craig Greenseid	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O POWERSCHOOL HOLDINGS, INC., 150 PARKSHORE DRIVE, FOLSOM CA 95630