QTWO (Q2 Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Q2 Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Q2 Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Q2 Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Q2 Holdings Inc (NYSE:QTWO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QTWO:Mexico 0Q2:Germany

Address

10355 Pecan Park Boulevard, Austin, TX, USA, 78729

Website

https://www.q2ebanking.com

Q2 Holdings Inc. is a provider of cloud-based virtual banking solutions for regional financial institutions to deliver mobile banking services to retail and commercial end-users who wish to bank anywhere and anytime. Its solutions operate on an integrated tablet-first platform which provides financial institutions a comprehensive view of account holder activity and meets the regulatory and security requirements applicable to the industry. The firm generates revenue from subscription-based arrangements for software offerings. A large majority of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States.

Executives

Jeffrey T Diehl	director, 10 percent owner	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 2200, CHICAGO IL 60606-2823
James Offerdahl	director	11501 DOMAIN DRIVE, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78758
Jonathan Price	officer: SVP, Corp and Business Dev	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Michael A. Volanoski	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Michael S Kerr	officer: SVP, General Counsel	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
David J Mehok	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Kim Rutledge	officer: SVP, Human Resources	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Kirk L Coleman	officer: Chief Banking Officer	10355 PECAN PARK BLVD, AUSITN TX 78729
R. H. Seale	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
John E Breeden	officer: EVP, Operations	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Matthew P Flake	director, officer: President and CEO	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD CONTACT STREE, AUSTIN TX 78729
Barry G Benton	officer: SVP, General Counsel	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Lynn Antipas Tyson	director	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Rebecca Lynn Atchison	director	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Adam D Anderson	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	13785 RESEARCH BLVD., SUITE 150, AUSTIN TX 78750