RBCN (Rubicon Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Rubicon Technology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rubicon Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Rubicon Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Rubicon Technology Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Rubicon Technology Inc (OTCPK:RBCN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 East Green Street, Bensenville, IL, USA, 60106

Website

https://www.rubicontechnology.com

Rubicon Technology Inc is a materials provider specializing in monocrystalline sapphire for applications in optical and industrial systems. The company manages its operations and ships from its owned facility located in Bensenville, Illinois. It offers optical and industrial sapphire products in various shapes and sizes, including round and rectangular windows and blanks, domes, tubes, and rods. Geographically, the group has a business presence in North America, Asia, and Other countries, of which prime revenue is derived from North America.

Executives

Timothy Brog	director	C/O RUBICON TECHNOLOGY, INC., 900 EAST GREEN STREET, UNIT A, BENSENVILLE IL 60106
Darren Clay Seirer	director, 10 percent owner	80 EIGHTH AVENUE, SUITE 1500, NEW YORK NY 10011
Jefferson Gramm	director	C/O BANDERA PARTNERS LLC, 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Janel Corp	10 percent owner	80 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Michael E Mikolajczyk	director	875 N. MICHIGAN AVE., STE 3000, CHICAGO IL 60611
Susan Westphal	director	C/O RUBICON TECHNOLOGY, INC., 900 EAST GREEN STREET, UNIT A, BENSENVILLE IL 60106
John Eidinger	director	80 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Dominique Schulte	10 percent owner	68 BANK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Oaxaca Group L.l.c.	10 percent owner	68 BANK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Kevin Timothy Lusardi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	115 BROADWAY, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Gregory Bylinsky	10 percent owner	C/O BANDERA PARTNERS LLC, 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Bandera Partners Llc	10 percent owner	50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Mathew Jason Rich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4501 EASTWOOD RD, MINNETONKA MN 55345
Inga A Slavutsky	officer: Chief Financial Officer	920 E. GREEN ST., BENSENVILLE IL 60106
Donald R Caldwell	director	5 RADNOR CORP CENTER STE 555, RADNOR PA 19087