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RBCN (Rubicon Technology) Predictability Rank


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What is Rubicon Technology Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Rubicon Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Rubicon Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Rubicon Technology's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Rubicon Technology Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
900 East Green Street, Bensenville, IL, USA, 60106
Rubicon Technology Inc is a materials provider specializing in monocrystalline sapphire for applications in optical and industrial systems. The company manages its operations and ships from its owned facility located in Bensenville, Illinois. It offers optical and industrial sapphire products in various shapes and sizes, including round and rectangular windows and blanks, domes, tubes, and rods. Geographically, the group has a business presence in North America, Asia, and Other countries, of which prime revenue is derived from North America.
Executives
Timothy Brog director C/O RUBICON TECHNOLOGY, INC., 900 EAST GREEN STREET, UNIT A, BENSENVILLE IL 60106
Darren Clay Seirer director, 10 percent owner 80 EIGHTH AVENUE, SUITE 1500, NEW YORK NY 10011
Jefferson Gramm director C/O BANDERA PARTNERS LLC, 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Janel Corp 10 percent owner 80 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Michael E Mikolajczyk director 875 N. MICHIGAN AVE., STE 3000, CHICAGO IL 60611
Susan Westphal director C/O RUBICON TECHNOLOGY, INC., 900 EAST GREEN STREET, UNIT A, BENSENVILLE IL 60106
John Eidinger director 80 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Dominique Schulte 10 percent owner 68 BANK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Oaxaca Group L.l.c. 10 percent owner 68 BANK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Kevin Timothy Lusardi officer: Chief Financial Officer 115 BROADWAY, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Gregory Bylinsky 10 percent owner C/O BANDERA PARTNERS LLC, 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Bandera Partners Llc 10 percent owner 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Mathew Jason Rich officer: Chief Financial Officer 4501 EASTWOOD RD, MINNETONKA MN 55345
Inga A Slavutsky officer: Chief Financial Officer 920 E. GREEN ST., BENSENVILLE IL 60106
Donald R Caldwell director 5 RADNOR CORP CENTER STE 555, RADNOR PA 19087