What is Rafael Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Rafael Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Rafael Holdings Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
520 Broad Street, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102
Rafael Holdings Inc is a holding company with interests in clinical and early-stage pharmaceutical companies. Its primary focus is to expand its investment portfolio through opportunistic investments including therapeutics, which address high unmet medical needs. Through the companies it has invested in, the company is focused on; developing Trappsol Cyclo its clinical program, developing instruments to advance minimally invasive surgeries, preclinical cancer metabolism research operations, and developing pharmaceutical-grade technology Unlokt for third-party cannabis manufacturers. It also holds and manages commercial real estate assets in Jerusalem, Israel. The company's reportable segments are; Infusion Technology, which derives maximum revenue, Healthcare, and Real Estate.
Executives
| I9 Plus, Llc |
10 percent owner |
153 BOOTH AVE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631 |
| Howard S Jonas |
director |
|
| Mary Margaret Huizinga |
officer: Chief Devel. & Medical Officer |
C/O RAFAEL HOLDINGS, INC., 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Ashok D Marin |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
C/O LIPOSCIENCE, INC., 2500 SUMNER BOULEVARD, RALEIGH NC 27616 |
| Patrick Fabbio |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2 PITNEY COURT, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920 |
| Mark Anthony Mccamish |
director |
C/O FORTY SEVEN, INC., 1490 O'BRIEN DRIVE, SUITE A, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Shannon Thyme Klinger |
director |
200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Ameet Mallik |
officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
C/O RAFAEL HOLDINGS, INC., 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| William Conkling |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O RAFAEL HOLDINGS, INC., 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Rachel Jonas |
director |
C/O RAFAEL HOLDINGS, INC., 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Boris C Pasche |
director |
C/O RAFAEL HOLDINGS, INC., 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Michael J Weiss |
director |
C/O NET2PHONE INC, 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Stephen M Greenberg |
director |
C/O NET2PHONE INC, 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| David Polinsky |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
90 BOOTH AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631 |
| Menachem Ash |
director, officer: President |
C/O IDT CORPORATION, 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
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