RYES (Rise Gold) Predictability Rank

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What is Rise Gold Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rise Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Rise Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Rise Gold Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Rise Gold Corp (OTCPK:RYES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RISE:Canada

Address

669 Howe Street, Suite 650, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 0B4

Website

https://www.risegoldcorp.com

Rise Gold Corp is a mineral exploration stage mining company and its primary asset is a past producing Idaho-Maryland Gold Mine property near Grass Valley, California, United States. The company conducts its business in one geographical segment located in California, United States, where all of its equipment and mineral property interests are located.

Executives

Lawrence Ward Lepard	director, 10 percent owner	211 GROVE STREET, WELLESLEY MA 02482
Mullin Joseph E Iii	officer: President and CEO	C/O RISE GOLD CORP., SUITE 215, 333 CROWN POINT CIRCLE, GRASS VALLEY CA 95945
Daniel Jr Oliver	10 percent owner	713 SILVERMINE ROAD, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Clynton R. Nauman	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Vince Boon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SOUTHERN ARC MINERALS INC., SUITE 650, 669 HOWE STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 0B4
John Proust	director	C/O SOUTHERN ARC MINERALS INC., SUITE 650, 669 HOWE STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 0B4
V B S Exchange Pty Ltd	10 percent owner	LEVEL 12, 644 CHAPEL ST, SOUTH YARRA C3 3141
Murray Guinn Flanigan	director	SUITE 602 - 1088 WEST 14TH AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6H 0A6
Thomas I. Vehrs	director	6833 YAMPA DRIVE, LARKSPUR CO 80118
Benjamin Mossman	director, officer: CEO	488 - 1090 WEST GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 3V7
V B S Investments Pty Ltd	10 percent owner	LEVEL 12, 644 CHAPEL ST, SOUTH YARRA C3 3141
Southern Arc Minerals Inc	10 percent owner	650-669 HOWE STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 0B4
Brian Cale Thomas	director, officer: CFO	488 - 1090 WEST GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 3V7
Bradley Scharfe	director, 10 percent owner	488 - 1090 WEST GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 3V7
Alan R Edwards	director, officer: Chairman of the Board	8121 N. FAIRWAY VIEW DR., TUCSON AZ 85742