scPharmaceuticals (scPharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is scPharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

scPharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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scPharmaceuticals (scPharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » scPharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:SCPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2SX:Germany

Address

2400 District Avenue, Suite 310, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803

Website

https://www.scpharmaceuticals.com

scPharmaceuticals Inc is a pharmaceutical company. Its pipeline includes products in various stages of clinical and non-clinical development. It focuses on pharmaceutical products in the cardiovascular and infectious disease therapeutic areas. The company's main product is Furoscix. Furoscix consists of this patented formulation of furosemide for subcutaneous administration with wearable, portable sc2Wear Infusor for the treatment of edema in patients with heart failure.

Executives

Orbimed Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
5am Partners Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Jack A. Khattar	director	C/O SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 9715 KEY WEST AVENUE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
John H Tucker	director, officer: President and CEO	INDEVUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 99 HAYDEN AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
William Tober Abraham	director	C/O SCPHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2400 DISTRICT AVENUE, SUITE 310, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Sara Bonstein	director	305 COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Andrew J. Schwab	10 percent owner	C/O 5AM VENTURES, 501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
5am Opportunities I (gp), Llc	other: See Remarks	501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
5am Opportunities I, L.p.	other: See Remarks	501 SECOND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Orbimed Genesis Gp Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Peter Kolchinsky	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Rajeev M. Shah	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Rachael Nokes	officer: See Remarks	C/O SCPHARMACEUITCALS, INC., 2400 DISTRICT AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803