SHW (Sherwin-Williams Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Sherwin-Williams Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sherwin-Williams Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sherwin-Williams Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Sherwin-Williams Co (NYSE:SHW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SHW:Mexico 1SHW:Italy 0L5V:UK SJ3:Germany SJ3:Germany S1HW34:Brazil SHWW:Austria

Address

101 West Prospect Avenue, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44115-1075

Website

https://www.sherwin-williams.com

Sherwin-Williams is the largest provider of architectural paint in the United States. The company has over 5,000 stores and sells premium paint at higher price points than most competitors. Sherwin-Williams also sells paint-related products in big-box stores and provides coatings for original equipment manufacturers.

Executives

Mary L Garceau	officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Jane M. Cronin	officer: SVP - Corporate Controller	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Gregory P. Sofish	officer: SVP - Human Resources	101 WEST PROSPECT AVENUE, 1180 MIDLAND BUILDING, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Allen J Mistysyn	officer: VP-Corporate Controller	101 WEST PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
John G Morikis	officer: President, Paint Stores Group	C/O THE SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO, 101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Bryan J Young	officer: SVP - Corp Strategy & Devel.	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Justin T Binns	officer: President, Perf Coatings Grp	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Karl J Jorgenrud	officer: President, Perf Coatings Group	101 WEST PROSPECT AVENUE, 1180 MIDLAND, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Todd D Rea	officer: President, Consumer Brands Grp	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, 1180 MIDLAND, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Heidi G Petz	officer: President, Consumer Brands Grp	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Thomas L Williams	director	6035 PARKLAND BOULEVARD, CLEVELAND OH 44124
Joseph F Sladek	officer: Pres. & GM, Glob. Supply Chain	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Marta R Stewart	director	C/O NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP, THREE COMMERCIAL PL, NORFOLK VA 23510-9219
Peter J. Ippolito	officer: President, The Americas Group	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Thomas P Gilligan	officer: SVP-Human Resources	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115