STSFF (Smartstop Self Storage REIT) Predictability Rank

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What is Smartstop Self Storage REIT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Smartstop Self Storage REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Smartstop Self Storage REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Smartstop Self Storage REIT Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Smartstop Self Storage REIT Inc (OTCPK:STSFF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10 Terrace Road, Ladera Ranch, CA, USA, 92694

Website

https://www.strategicreit.com

Smartstop Self Storage REIT Inc operates as a real estate investment trust. The trust owns, acquires, and operates self-storage properties. It operates in two segments namely, self-storage operations which generates key revenue, and managed REIT platform business. The investment objective is to focus on investing in self-storage facilities and related self-storage real estate investments that are expected to support sustainable stockholder distributions over the long term.

Executives

Wayne Johnson	officer: President and CIO	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Michael Mcclure	officer: Chief Executive Officer	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Paula M. Mathews	director	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Joseph H Robinson	officer: Chief Operations Officer	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Harold Perry	director	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
James L. Berg	officer: Former Secretary	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Michael O Terjung	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Gerald Valle	officer: SVP, Self-Storage Operations	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
James R. Barry	officer: CFO and Treasurer	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Nicholas Look	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
David J Mueller	director	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Matt F Lopez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
William H Brownfield	director	111 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE 120, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Timothy S. Morris	director	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
H. Michael Schwartz	director, officer: Chairman, CEO and President	10 TERRACE ROAD, LADERA RANCH CA 92694

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