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Beijing SuperMap Software Co (SZSE:300036) Predictability Rank


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What is Beijing SuperMap Software Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beijing SuperMap Software Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Beijing SuperMap Software Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Beijing SuperMap Software Co (SZSE:300036) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Beijing SuperMap Software Co Ltd (SZSE:300036) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:603297 SZSE:300455 SZSE:002338 SZSE:300416 SZSE:300203 SZSE:301050 SZSE:300065 SHSE:688337 SHSE:688502 SZSE:002413 TSE:6861 FTV OSTO:HEXA B KEYS GRMN TDY TRMB TSE:7701 CGNX ST
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.10, Jiuxianqiao North Road, 6th Floor, 107th Floor, Electronic City IT Industrial Park, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100015
Website
http://www.supermap.com.cn
Beijing SuperMap Software Co Ltd is a GIS platform software and service provider. The products of the company include super map 8C series and super map 7C series. The solutions offered by the company include super map land information system, super map public service system, super map real estate information system, super map municipality GIS, and superman facility management system.
Executives
Song Guan Fu Directors, executives
Sun Zai Hong Director
Bai Yang Jian Executives
Xu Xu Executives
Ceng Zhi Ming Supervisors
Zhong Er Shun Director
Du Qing E Directors, executives
Li Shao Jun Executives
Ren Xiang Executives
Tan Fei Yan Securities Affairs Representative
Wang Er Qi Director
Wang Kang Hong Directors, executives
Liang Jun Executives
Teng Shou Wei Supervisors
Wang Ji Hui Executives

Beijing SuperMap Software Co (SZSE:300036) Headlines

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