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Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co (SZSE:300319) Predictability Rank


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What is Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co (SZSE:300319) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co Ltd (SZSE:300319) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:603920 SZSE:000049 SHSE:688383 SHSE:603989 SZSE:300224 SZSE:301348 SHSE:688116 SHSE:688183 SZSE:002913 SZSE:301377 APH TPE:2317 TEL SZSE:002475 TSE:6981 TPE:2308 GLW XKRX:006400 SZSE:000725 JBL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Yuxing Road,GolfStreet, Guanlan Town, Bao'an, Shenzhen, CHN, 518110
Website
http://www.szmicrogate.com
Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co Ltd operates in the multilayer passive component industry. The company develops and manufactures electronic components. Its main products include low temperature co-fired ceramic radio frequency components, chip inductors, electromagnetic interference and electromagnetic compatibility components, power inductors, and the near-field communication antenna. The products are widely used in the digital versatile disc player, mobile phone, personal computer, flat panel display, car carrier and other consumptive products.
Executives
Cheng Hou Bo Director
Hu Gen Chang Executives
Zhang Mei Rong Directors, executives
Jiang Bo Secretary Dong
Zhang Zhao Qian Directors, executives
Liang Qi Xin Executives
Zhong Zhi Hai Directors, executives
Yi Hai Lan Supervisors
Liu Qian Securities Affairs Representative
Li Wen Yan Director
Ye Wen Xin Director
Jiang Li Ming Directors, executives
Zhang Hai En Director
Li Ming Director
Zheng Yi Song Director

Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co (SZSE:300319) Headlines

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