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TPZ (Tortoise Power & Energy Infra Fd) Predictability Rank


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What is Tortoise Power & Energy Infra Fd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Tortoise Power & Energy Infra Fd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tortoise Power & Energy Infra Fd Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tortoise Power & Energy Infra Fd Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6363 College Boulevard, Suite 100A, Overland Park, KS, USA, 66211
Tortoise Power & Energy Infra Fd Inc is a closed-ended fund. Its primary investment objective is to provide a high level of current income. Its secondary objective is capital appreciation. The company invests in a portfolio of fixed income and equity securities issued by power and energy infrastructure companies.
Executives
Ciccotello Conrad S director, 10 percent owner 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Jennifer Paquette director 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
H Kevin Birzer other: Affiliate of Inv Advisor 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Brian Alan Kessens officer: President 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
P. Bradley Adams officer: Chief Financial Officer 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Matthew Sallee other: Member of Investment Committee 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Alexandra Herger director 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Rand C Berney director 11550 ASH STREET, SUITE 300, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Sean Paul Wickliffe officer: Vice President & Asst Treas. 6363 COLLEGE BOULEVARD, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Gengler Courtney officer: Vice President 5200 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Ryan Channell officer: Vice President 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Adam T Peltzer officer: Vice President 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Charles E Heath director 180801 MASTIN BLVD, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Lovell Minnick Partners Llc 10 percent owner, other: Control Person of Adviser 555 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, SUITE 510, RADNOR PA 19087
James Ryan Mick other: Member of Investment Committee 11550 ASH STREET, SUITE 300, LEAWOOD KS 66211