MAG Silver (TSX:MAG) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

What is MAG Silver Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MAG Silver Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MAG Silver Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MAG Silver's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MAG Silver Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » MAG Silver Corp (TSX:MAG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MAG:USA 0V56:UK MQ8:Germany

Address

800 West Pender Street, Suite 770, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 2V6

Website

https://www.magsilver.com

MAG Silver Corp is a Canadian mining company. It is focused on advancing high-grade, district-scale precious metals projects in the Americas. The Company's principal asset is in the Juanicipio Mine located in Zacatecas, Mexico, which achieved commercial production of around 4,000 tonnes per day. The company has also Interest in the Larder project. Also, MAG has an expanded exploration program targeting multiple prospective targets at both Juanicipio and the Deer Trail 100% earn-in project in Utah. The Juanicipio Mine recognizes revenue for silver, gold, lead, and zinc from concentrate sales.

Executives

George Nickolas Paspalas	Director, Senior Officer
Thomas Peregoodoff	Director
Michael John Curlook	Senior Officer
Peter Megaw	Senior Officer
Daniel Thomas Macinnis	Director
Larry Taddei	Senior Officer
Dale Canfield Peniuk	Director
William James Mallory	Senior Officer
Selma Lussenburg	Director
The K2 Principal Fund L.p.	10% Security Holder
Ingrid Jo-ann Hibbard	Director
Richard Peter Clark	Director
Noëlle Drapeau	Director, Senior Officer
Darren Hartley Bondar	Director, Senior Officer
Zula Kropivnitski	Director