TYRA (Tyra Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Tyra Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tyra Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tyra Biosciences Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Tyra Biosciences Inc (NAS:TYRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2656 State Street, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008

Website

https://www.tyra.bio

Tyra Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing next-generation precision medicines that target large opportunities in Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor (FGFR) biology. The company's in-house precision medicine platform, SNAP, enables rapid and precise drug design through iterative molecular SNAPshots that help to design and predict which product candidates may demonstrate the highest potency, selectivity, and tolerability in the clinic. The various drug candidates in the company's product pipeline are TYRA-300, TYRA-200, and TYRA-430: three clinical-stage, novel small molecules designed to overcome the toxicity and resistance liabilities of first-generation pan-FGFR inhibitors.

Executives

Nina S Kjellson	director	C/O INTERWEST PARTNERS, 2710 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Alan Fuhrman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMBIT BIOSCIENCES CORPORATION, 11080 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Todd Harris	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	30699 RUSSELL RANCH ROAD, SUITE 140, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362
Daniel Bensen	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O TYRA BIOSCIENCES, INC, 2656 STATE STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Mva Investors, Llc	10 percent owner	12860 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Aaron I. Davis	10 percent owner	12860 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Ali D. Fawaz	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O TYRA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 2656 STATE STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008
John Stephen Healy	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O TYRA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 2656 STATE STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Boxer Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	12860 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Alta Partners Nextgen Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	4 EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Robert J More	director, 10 percent owner	680 S CACHE STREET, SUITE 100, BOX 10820, JACKSON WY 83001
Melissa Mccracken	director	C/O TYRA BIOSCIENCES, INC, 2656 STATE STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Siddarth Subramony	director	C/O TYRA BIOSCIENCES, INC, 2656 STATE STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008