Udemy (UDMY) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Udemy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Udemy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Udemy Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Udemy's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Udemy (UDMY) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Udemy Inc (NAS:UDMY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7WH:Germany

Address

600 Harrison Street, 3rd Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107

Website

https://www.udemy.com

Udemy Inc operates a marketplace platform at the center of a vibrant knowledge network. The Company operated under two operating and reportable segments Consumer and Enterprise.

Executives

Venu Venugopal	officer: Chief Technology Officer	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Eren Bali	director	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Kenneth Hirschman	officer: SVP, Operations and GC	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Gregory Scott Brown	officer: President, Udemy Business	C/O BLACKHAWK NETWORK HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Sarah Blanchard	officer: Chief Financial Officer	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Stephanie Stapleton Sudbury	officer: President, Udemy Business	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Richard Qiu	officer: President, New Ventures	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Prasad Raje	officer: Chief Product Officer	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Sohaib Abbasi	director	100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Genefa Murphy	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Jeffrey Lieberman	director, 10 percent owner	680 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Prasad Gune	officer: SVP, Product	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Llibert Argerich	officer: SVP, Marketing	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Gregg Coccari	director, officer: President, CEO and Chairperson	719 KINGMAN AVENUE, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Karen Fascenda	officer: Chief People Officer	600 HARRISON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107