What is United States Cellular Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
United States Cellular Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
United States Cellular (United States Cellular) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8410 West Bryn Mawr, Chicago, IL, USA, 60631
U.S. Cellular is a regional wireless carrier that serves about 5 million customers spread across four major geographic clusters: the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, New England, and the Pacific Northwest. These service territories encompass a total population of about 32 million people. The vast majority of the markets the firm serves are rural or second/third-tier cities, with only the greater Milwaukee and Oklahoma City regions boasting populations greater than 1 million. U.S. Cellular also owns a 5.5% stake in Verizon Wireless' Los Angeles operations and, unlike its wireless carrier peers, owns most of its own towers.
Executives
| Michael Irizarry |
officer: EVP & CTO-Engineering and IS |
8410 W BRYN MAWR, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| Kevin R Lowell |
officer: EVP, Chief People Officer |
8410 W. BRYN MAWR AVE, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| Xavier Williams |
director |
C/O AMERICAN VIRTUAL CLOUD TECHNOLOGIES, 1720 PEACHTREE ST., SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| James W Butman |
director |
30 N. LASALLE STREET, STE. 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602 |
| Gregory P Josefowicz |
director |
850 76TH STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518 |
| Deirdre Drake |
officer: SVP-Chief HR Officer |
8410 W. BRYN MAWR AVE, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| Esteban C Iriarte |
director |
8410 W. BRYN MAWR, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| Vicki L Villacrez |
director |
30 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602 |
| Ronald E Daly |
director |
|
| J Samuel Crowley |
director |
8410 WEST BRYN MAWR ST STE 700, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| Jay Ellison |
officer: EVP-Operations |
|
| Laurent C Therivel |
director, officer: President and CEO |
8410 W. BRYN MAWR STREET, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
| Kenneth R Meyers |
director, officer: President and CEO |
|
| Anita J Kroll |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
30 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602 |
| Steven T Campbell |
director, officer: EVP-Finance, CFO and Treasurer |
8410 W. BRYN MAWR, CHICAGO IL 60631 |
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